Lately the posts have been pessimistic. It's not my fault - these are the times, apparently. Something happened that I was hoping not to hear. Rumors are beginning to spread that the Russian economy may slide into recession. What is it, what does it threaten, and - most importantly - what to do in case of this? All this in today's post of despair.
So the first question is what is a recession?
What is a recession?
To be very brief, I’ll quote from our favorite Wikipedia:
Recession (from the Latin Recessus - retreat) - in economics (in particular, in macroeconomics) the term means a relatively moderate, non-critical decline in production or a slowdown in economic growth. A production decline is characterized by zero growth in gross national product (GNP) (stagnation) or its decline for more than six months.
So, a recession is a decline in economic growth. It is characterized by virtually zero GDP growth and no growth in production. Let's look at the MICEX industry chart for mechanical engineering for the last year:
It can be seen that from February to the present moment there has been a steady decline. ( N.B. It is important to understand here that the MICEX chart itself does not indicate the beginning of a recession, but indirectly indicates a general decline in the economy. Absolute numbers cannot be derived from it!). The level corresponds to last year’s, therefore we have zero annual growth. The decrease in trading volumes indicates a decrease in investor interest in this sector.
At first glance, there is nothing to worry about - a decline is always followed by a rise. However, it is not the recession itself that is scary, but the reasons that cause it.
What causes a recession?
The reasons are different, but in our case, most economists identify the following:
- High energy prices do not ensure further economic development within the old corridor.
- Russia’s raw materials curse does not allow the burden to be transferred from the raw materials sector to more knowledge-intensive drivers of the economy in the foreseeable future. And, frankly speaking, it is unlikely that anyone at the top wants to do this for well-known reasons.
- Recent trends to increase the tax burden on small businesses have caused an unprecedented exodus of entrepreneurs. Where they all are is not known for certain.
- Fulfilling the president's election promises requires a huge amount of funds, which shifts finances from the production sector to the social sector. (This requires clarification. The manufacturing sector involves return on investment and profit, coupled with an increase in GDP. Social obligations, of course, do not imply any dividends.)
- A further increase in the tax burden is fraught with social unrest, which is not considered an option by the authorities.
It turns out to be a stalemate. There is not enough money, but there is nowhere to get it from. Some experts considered devaluation as a solution (your humble servant recently) and, as a consequence, an increase in economic activity through the development of lending. However, practice shows that the growth of loan portfolios is very limited. Especially not consumer ones, but industrial ones. Businesses are not confident and do not want to take out long-term loans.
But it would be dishonest not to voice a different opinion. It lies in a simple lemma: some experts do not guarantee that the economy will fall into recession. Personally, this gives me little comfort.
What to do? How to survive with the least amount of bloodshed?
Just look back. Many experts believe that the current recession - if inevitable - will be similar to the 2008 crisis. Thus, economic instability will provoke the collapse of some bubbles. Shocks are quite possible in overheated markets. One such market is the housing market.
My personal observations are that developers and builders have already sensed something is wrong and are stimulating demand with promotions and discounts like never before. In addition, there are rumors that housing prices will rise by 15% in the fall.
In my opinion, these rumors are unfounded. Firstly, the demand for housing is not growing and many apartments are empty - I know this for sure. The relative level of well-being of Russians is falling. In addition, if housing really had risen in price by 15% in two months by the fall for objective reasons, then no reasonable person would sell it now. An increase in profit by 15% in two months - isn't this a capitalist's dream? But no, they are trying to drain it quickly. Including due to these rumors.
In addition, if there are suspicions that credit institutions, in light of the recession, in order to somehow stay afloat will be forced to issue cheaper credit money. The competition in this market is quite high, the market is overheated.
But this is something to think about at your leisure. I am sure that the observant reader will find a dozen more examples of overheated markets and overvalued assets.
The Russian Constitution guarantees freedom of travel throughout the country and choice of place of residence, but citizens must timely register, temporary or permanent. Those who violate this rule will face a fine for expired registration. Amount of fine for untimely registration and expired registration Table 1. Punishment for violations in the field of registration of citizens Norm of law Brief basis Provided fine, in rubles If the offense is committed in Moscow...
The cadastral number and registration of real estate in the Unified State Register is a mandatory requirement for property owners. In order to find out what individual cadastral code an apartment has, you need to turn to online resources containing such information. If your apartment is registered with the state cadastral register, it will certainly have its own individual number. This information must be included in the technical documentation for the apartment. The documents contain...
A recession most often leads to massive drops in stock market indices. As a rule, the economy of one country depends on the economies of other countries, so an economic downturn in one country or another can lead to a downturn in the economies of other countries and even a crash on world markets (see Black Thursday). Recessions are also characterized by many other signs of cyclical crises, for example, rising unemployment.
Encyclopedic YouTube
1 / 4
✪ Closing the recession, tunnel method
✪ Gum recession. The neck of the tooth is exposed - myths and truth about treatment | Gum inflammation | Dental TV
✪ RECESSION IN PERSONAL DEVELOPMENT
✪ What is gum recession?
Subtitles
Causes
The causes of recessions can be different; explanations of a recession are closely related to the concept of business cycles in the economy. Different economic schools define the causes of recession differently; in addition, various economic fluctuations and recessions have different causes. N. D. Kondratiev explains the cycles and corresponding recessions of long waves by a change in technological structures. The reasons for the recession in Western countries and in Russia also differ. The latest recession in the United States and Western countries was provoked by the situation in the financial markets and the securities market, primarily mortgage-backed securities. The 2001 recession in the United States was associated with a fall in investment and a decrease in efficiency in new sectors of the economy, such as information technology. The 2008 recession in Russia is associated with a fall in world oil prices and a low level of production in non-resource sectors of the economy. The continuation of the crisis in Russia in 2010 and 2011 is associated with the so-called “raw materials curse”, the growth of the public sector of the economy, rising taxes, the lack of reforms in the law enforcement system, leading to inequality among market participants, and monopolization of the economy.
About the terms “recession”, “economic crisis”, “depression” and “financial crisis”
In the old days, we suffered from periodic economic crises, the sudden onset of which was called a “panic”, and the prolonged period after the panic was called a “depression”. The most famous depression of modern times is, of course, the one that began in 1929 with a typical financial panic and continued until the outbreak of World War II. After the 1929 disaster, economists and politicians decided that this should never happen again. In order to cope with this task successfully and without much hassle, it was only necessary to eliminate the word “depression” from use. From that moment on, America never had to experience depression again. For when another severe depression arrived in 1937-1938, economists simply refused to use this terrible name and introduced a new, more euphonious concept - recession. Since then, we have already experienced many recessions, but not a single depression. However, pretty soon the word “recession” also turned out to be quite harsh for the refined feelings of the American public. Apparently, our last recession was in 1957-1958. Since that time, we have experienced “downturns”, or even better “slowdowns”, or even “deviations”.
(recessio; lat. retreat, distance; syn. retroposition)
surgical operation: correction of strabismus, which consists of moving posteriorly the site of attachment to the sclera of one of the external muscles of the eye.
View value Recession in other dictionaries
Recession— recessions, plural no, w. (from Latin recessio - retreat) (biol.). Gradual disappearance, removal of certain hereditary characteristics in the body.
Ushakov's Explanatory Dictionary
Recession- relatively moderate, non-critical decline in production or slowdown in economic growth
growth.
Economic dictionary
Recession, Decline, Economic Crisis— A decline in economic activity, defined by many economists as a decline in the gross domestic product for at least two consecutive quarters.
Economic dictionary
Recession (recession, Recession)— Slowdown or decline in the growth rate of gross national product. A deep recession is called “depression.” The process of economic growth........
Economic dictionary
Recession- - relatively moderate, non-critical decline in business activity, production, slowdown in economic growth, usually defined as sequential........
Legal Dictionary
Recession- (recessio; lat. retreat, distance; syn. retroposition) surgical operation: correction of strabismus, which consists of moving posteriorly the place of attachment to the sclera........
Large medical dictionary
RECESSION
a relatively moderate, non-critical decline in production or slowdown in economic growth.
- - English recession; German Rezession. 1. Temporary decline in production or slowdown in its growth rate 2. Return of conquered territories...
Encyclopedia of Sociology
- - a relatively moderate, non-critical decline in production or slowdown in economic growth...
Economic dictionary
-
Librarian's terminological dictionary on socio-economic topics
- - a break in sedimentation without a change from sea to land. Observed on the bottom of the seas, in the region. strong bottom currents that carry away all sediments and even erode the seabed. See Erosion...
Geological encyclopedia
- - a reduction in the production of real national product, lasting six or more months. In English: RecessionSm. See also: Economic cycles ...
Financial Dictionary
- - Slowdown or decline in the growth rate of gross national product. A deep recession is called a "depression"...
Financial Dictionary
- - a decline in production or a slowdown in its growth...
Large economic dictionary
- - a recession during which real national income declines for at least two quarters while the level...
Large economic dictionary
- - a relatively moderate, non-critical decline in business activity, production, slowdown in economic growth, usually defined as a consistent decrease in real gross national...
Encyclopedic Dictionary of Economics and Law
- - ; pl. rece/ssii, R....
Spelling dictionary of the Russian language
- - RECESSION, recession, plural. no, female . Gradual disappearance, removal of some hereditary characteristics in the body...
Ushakov's Explanatory Dictionary
- - recession One of the stages of the business cycle, characterized by a decrease in demand, insignificant investment volumes and rising unemployment...
Explanatory Dictionary by Efremova
- - RECESSION and, g. recession f., German Rezession lat. recessio retreat. Krysin 1998. 1. biol. Gradual disappearance, removal of some hereditary characteristics in the body. Ush. 1939. 2...
Historical Dictionary of Gallicisms of the Russian Language
- - 1) geogr. sea tide; 2) geogr. glacier retreat; 3) economical slight or short-term economic DEPRESSION, stagnation, drop in economic activity; falling market conditions...
Dictionary of foreign words of the Russian language
- - ...
Word forms
- - recession...
Synonym dictionary
"RECESSION" in books
Great Recession
From the author's bookThe Great Recession Meanwhile, the processes that took place in the economy also reduced the demand for oil. The Great Recession, according to current estimates, began in December 2007, long before it was discussed publicly. It was based on the credit crisis: too much
Recession or depression
From the book Economic Cycle: Analysis of the Austrian School author Kuryaev Alexander VRecession or Depression Contrary to popular belief, a recession is not two quarters of negative real GDP growth or a deterioration in various economic indicators; A recession is the elimination of mistakes caused by previous loose monetary policy. Others
What is a recession?
From the book Twitonomics. Everything you need to know about economics, short and to the point by Compton NickWhat is a recession? A recession is a state of the economy in which GDP falls for at least two consecutive quarters or if unemployment rises by 1.5% per year. The US National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession. It analyzes various
Great Recession
From the book Political Economy of the 21st Century [The Last Civilization] author Galin Vasily VasilievichThe Great Recession Modern economics, with its belief in free markets and globalization, promised prosperity for all... However, the Great Recession... shattered these illusions. J. Stiglitz In the second half of the 20th century. the situation has changed dramatically. Now America could increase
Permanent recession. She's depression
From the book The Decline of the Dollar Empire and the End of “Pax Americana” author Kobyakov Andrey BorisovichPermanent recession. This is also called depression. The rise in 2002, achieved at such a high price, will be short-lived. As evidenced by the dynamics of various indicators that have great predictive value, and in particular the dynamics of the industrial activity index (see above
b. Warsaw recession
From the book History of Lithuania from ancient times to 1569 author Gudavičius Edwardasb. Warsaw Recession The Treaty of Vilnius of 1561 was a successful compromise with the German nobility of Livonia. Defending Livonian castles with small garrisons, Lithuania was able to hold back the pressure of Russia's superior /628/ forces. In 1562, the Lithuanians occupied Ronenburg and were even allowed into
INSTEAD OF AN AFTERWORD. THE GREAT RECESSION
From the book The Dead End of Liberalism. How wars start author Galin Vasily VasilievichINSTEAD OF AN AFTERWORD. THE GREAT RECESSION
How much is psychological recession costing you?
From book 4 rules for an effective leader in conditions of uncertainty by Covey Stephen RHow much is psychological recession costing you? The costs of fear are high. Even in normal times, “anxiety consumes up to 28 percent of the average U.S. worker’s work time... and reduces productivity by an estimated $650 billion per year” (69). In these uncertain times, people
7. RECESSION
From the book The Collapse of the World Dollar System: Immediate Prospects. author Maslyukov Yu. D.7. RECESSION Investors now have to quickly reconsider their risk exposure, subjecting their investment portfolios to a major restructuring as the problem of the stock market crash was exacerbated by the radical slowdown in the US economy during the
December 19, 2008 Janusz K. Kowalski, "The Wall Street Journal Polska" Polish industry shrank by almost 9%. The economy is in trouble. Recession begins
From the book Translations of Polish forums for 2008 author author unknownDecember 19, 2008 Janusz K. Kowalski, "The Wall Street Journal Polska" Polish industry declined by almost 9%. The economy is in trouble. A recession begins http://www.dziennik.pl/gospodarka/article2...ie_recesja.htmlJanusz K. Kowalski ,Polski przemys?wyhamowa?o blisko 9 proc.Gospodarka ma k?opoty.Zaczyna si?recesjaThe good times are ending for
